New Seat Details - Blyth and Ashington

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Blyth and Ashington been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
LAB	34,309	59.8%
CON	18,112	31.6%
LIB	2,952	5.1%
Green	1,046	1.8%
UKIP	922	1.6%
LAB Majority	16,197	28.2%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Blyth and Ashington: Map

List of old seats forming part of Blyth and Ashington

Old seat: Berwick-upon-Tweed

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Berwick-upon-Tweed, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Berwick-upon-Tweed				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Northumberland	Alnwick	7,449	Berwick and Morpeth	2,783	1,164	1,427	0	113	0	0	0	5,487
Northumberland	Amble	3,408	Berwick and Morpeth	1,092	1,277	362	0	45	0	0	0	2,776
Northumberland	Amble West with Warkworth	3,318	Berwick and Morpeth	1,236	478	566	0	47	0	0	0	2,327
Northumberland	Bamburgh	3,450	Berwick and Morpeth	1,618	402	538	0	49	0	0	0	2,607
Northumberland	Berwick East	3,215	Berwick and Morpeth	1,132	766	774	0	57	0	0	0	2,729
Northumberland	Berwick North	3,146	Berwick and Morpeth	1,144	531	760	0	57	0	0	0	2,492
Northumberland	Berwick West with Ord	2,943	Berwick and Morpeth	994	514	697	0	45	0	0	0	2,250
Northumberland	Druridge Bay	3,936	Berwick and Morpeth	1,530	1,527	469	0	57	0	0	0	3,583
Northumberland	Longhorsley	2,261	Berwick and Morpeth	1,194	174	171	0	21	0	0	0	1,560
Northumberland	Longhoughton	3,286	Berwick and Morpeth	1,756	478	334	0	52	0	0	0	2,620
Northumberland	Lynemouth	3,207	Blyth and Ashington	1,062	983	491	0	44	0	0	0	2,580
Northumberland	Norham and Islandshires	3,440	Berwick and Morpeth	1,364	349	700	0	50	0	0	0	2,463
Northumberland	Pegswood	670	Berwick and Morpeth	215	164	90	0	9	0	0	0	478
Northumberland	Ponteland North	530	Hexham and Cramlington	288	48	45	0	6	0	0	0	387
Northumberland	Rothbury	3,957	Berwick and Morpeth	1,436	407	885	0	57	0	0	0	2,785
Northumberland	Shilbottle	3,962	Berwick and Morpeth	1,637	733	338	0	43	0	0	0	2,751
Northumberland	Wooler	3,318	Berwick and Morpeth	1,665	369	271	0	34	0	0	0	2,339
	Total	55,496		22,146	10,364	8,918	0	786	0	0	0	42,214

The full details of these calculations are given on the Berwick-upon-Tweed seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Blyth Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Blyth Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Blyth Valley				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Northumberland	Cowpen	3,050	Blyth and Ashington	681	1,581	64	0	46	0	0	0	2,372
Northumberland	Cramlington East	2,751	Hexham and Cramlington	642	1,367	83	0	40	0	0	0	2,132
Northumberland	Cramlington Eastfield	3,840	Hexham and Cramlington	1,046	1,557	166	0	66	0	0	0	2,835
Northumberland	Cramlington North	4,015	Hexham and Cramlington	1,653	962	100	0	48	0	0	0	2,763
Northumberland	Cramlington South East	3,738	Hexham and Cramlington	923	1,280	134	0	59	0	0	0	2,396
Northumberland	Cramlington Village	3,445	Hexham and Cramlington	1,040	1,113	120	0	55	0	0	0	2,328
Northumberland	Cramlington West	3,737	Hexham and Cramlington	1,284	1,327	89	0	54	0	0	0	2,754
Northumberland	Croft	2,883	Blyth and Ashington	672	1,633	74	0	48	0	0	0	2,427
Northumberland	Hartley	3,883	Blyth and Ashington	973	1,381	135	0	57	0	0	0	2,546
Northumberland	Holywell	3,966	Blyth and Ashington	1,052	1,428	138	0	63	0	0	0	2,681
Northumberland	Isabella	3,102	Blyth and Ashington	630	1,614	91	0	50	0	0	0	2,385
Northumberland	Kitty Brewster	4,009	Blyth and Ashington	875	1,809	118	0	54	0	0	0	2,856
Northumberland	Newsham	3,179	Blyth and Ashington	839	1,443	115	0	55	0	0	0	2,452
Northumberland	Plessey	3,283	Blyth and Ashington	908	1,194	134	0	57	0	0	0	2,293
Northumberland	Seghill with Seaton Delaval	4,146	Blyth and Ashington	898	1,676	116	0	58	0	0	0	2,748
Northumberland	South Blyth	3,579	Blyth and Ashington	1,052	1,106	164	0	61	0	0	0	2,383
Northumberland	Wensleydale	3,213	Blyth and Ashington	687	1,298	105	0	48	0	0	0	2,138
	Total	59,819		15,855	23,769	1,946	0	919	0	0	0	42,489

The full details of these calculations are given on the Blyth Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Wansbeck

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Wansbeck, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Wansbeck				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Northumberland	Ashington Central	3,181	Blyth and Ashington	553	1,833	69	77	38	0	0	0	2,570
Northumberland	Bedlington Central	3,483	Blyth and Ashington	898	1,293	135	73	35	0	0	0	2,434
Northumberland	Bedlington East	3,130	Blyth and Ashington	599	1,663	83	70	36	0	0	0	2,451
Northumberland	Bedlington West	3,577	Blyth and Ashington	906	1,337	155	78	38	0	0	0	2,514
Northumberland	Bothal	3,420	Blyth and Ashington	783	1,303	148	73	38	0	0	0	2,345
Northumberland	Choppington	3,442	Berwick and Morpeth	704	1,654	62	68	30	0	0	0	2,518
Northumberland	College	3,368	Blyth and Ashington	592	1,809	68	72	35	0	0	0	2,576
Northumberland	Haydon	3,486	Blyth and Ashington	708	1,442	128	73	35	0	0	0	2,386
Northumberland	Hirst	3,113	Blyth and Ashington	667	1,906	57	84	37	0	0	0	2,751
Northumberland	Longhorsley	940	Berwick and Morpeth	373	164	17	36	8	0	0	0	598
Northumberland	Morpeth Kirkhill	4,015	Berwick and Morpeth	1,169	1,096	189	78	50	0	0	0	2,582
Northumberland	Morpeth North	3,650	Berwick and Morpeth	1,220	933	188	70	119	0	0	0	2,530
Northumberland	Morpeth Stobhill	3,502	Berwick and Morpeth	1,095	987	158	73	43	0	0	0	2,356
Northumberland	Newbiggin Central and East	3,378	Blyth and Ashington	738	1,596	127	81	38	0	0	0	2,580
Northumberland	Pegswood	3,163	Berwick and Morpeth	777	961	134	172	35	0	0	0	2,079
Northumberland	Seaton with Newbiggin West	3,425	Blyth and Ashington	632	1,540	99	164	35	0	0	0	2,470
Northumberland	Sleekburn	3,180	Blyth and Ashington	707	1,441	138	77	40	0	0	0	2,403
Northumberland	Stakeford	3,505	Berwick and Morpeth	782	1,380	58	64	28	0	0	0	2,312
	Total	58,958		13,903	24,338	2,013	1,483	718	0	0	0	42,455

The full details of these calculations are given on the Wansbeck seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Blyth and Ashington

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Blyth and Ashington
Northumberland	Ashington Central	3,760	Wansbeck	553	1,833	69	77	38	0	0	0	2,570
Northumberland	Bedlington Central	3,561	Wansbeck	898	1,293	135	73	35	0	0	0	2,434
Northumberland	Bedlington East	3,584	Wansbeck	599	1,663	83	70	36	0	0	0	2,451
Northumberland	Bedlington West	3,678	Wansbeck	906	1,337	155	78	38	0	0	0	2,514
Northumberland	Bothal	3,430	Wansbeck	783	1,303	148	73	38	0	0	0	2,345
Northumberland	College	3,768	Wansbeck	592	1,809	68	72	35	0	0	0	2,576
Northumberland	Cowpen	3,538	Blyth Valley	681	1,581	64	0	46	0	0	0	2,372
Northumberland	Croft	3,620	Blyth Valley	672	1,633	74	0	48	0	0	0	2,427
Northumberland	Hartley	3,797	Blyth Valley	973	1,381	135	0	57	0	0	0	2,546
Northumberland	Haydon	3,489	Wansbeck	708	1,442	128	73	35	0	0	0	2,386
Northumberland	Hirst	4,024	Wansbeck	667	1,906	57	84	37	0	0	0	2,751
Northumberland	Holywell	3,999	Blyth Valley	1,052	1,428	138	0	63	0	0	0	2,681
Northumberland	Isabella	3,557	Blyth Valley	630	1,614	91	0	50	0	0	0	2,385
Northumberland	Kitty Brewster	4,259	Blyth Valley	875	1,809	118	0	54	0	0	0	2,856
Northumberland	Lynemouth	3,593	Berwick-upon-Tweed	1,062	983	491	0	44	0	0	0	2,580
Northumberland	Newbiggin Central and East	3,772	Wansbeck	738	1,596	127	81	38	0	0	0	2,580
Northumberland	Newsham	3,656	Blyth Valley	839	1,443	115	0	55	0	0	0	2,452
Northumberland	Plessey	3,418	Blyth Valley	908	1,194	134	0	57	0	0	0	2,293
Northumberland	Seaton with Newbiggin West	3,614	Wansbeck	632	1,540	99	164	35	0	0	0	2,470
Northumberland	Seghill with Seaton Delaval	4,098	Blyth Valley	898	1,676	116	0	58	0	0	0	2,748
Northumberland	Sleekburn	3,514	Wansbeck	707	1,441	138	77	40	0	0	0	2,403
Northumberland	South Blyth	3,554	Blyth Valley	1,052	1,106	164	0	61	0	0	0	2,383
Northumberland	Wensleydale	3,190	Blyth Valley	687	1,298	105	0	48	0	0	0	2,138
	Total	84,473		18,112	34,309	2,952	922	1,046	0	0	0	57,341

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Blyth and Ashington. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Ronnie Campbell (LAB)
County/Area:	Northumberland (North East)
Electorate:	84,473
Turnout:	67.9%

Blyth and Ashington: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Blyth and Ashington: Overview

Introduction